Friday, April 25, 2008

DailyKos: Off The Mark

Markos:  Obama has a higher ceiling, he wins states like Minnesota (and Iowa, Wisconsin, Washington, Oregon, and so on) more easily than Clinton. If "electability" is the measure by which the supers should decide, the numbers are fairly clear. Having better numbers in Florida does Clinton little good if McCain threatens to take away Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Those three states have 37 EVs, to Florida's 27.
First of all, Markos seems to have put Michigan in the Obama column.  On the basis of what?  His strength in labor households?  Working people?  Catholics?
Secondly, yes, those three states have more than Florida's 27, but that's cherry-pickin' your states.  Why doesn't Markos discuss Ohio, where Clinton leads McCain by 5 percentage points and Obama trails by 3?  Or Pennsylvania, where Clinton leads by 6 and Obama by 2?
Obama probably wins Colorado where Hillary doesn't, and possibly Virginia as well.  Stack that up against Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Ohio--or, while we're at it, Massachusetts, where Hillary leads by 16 and Obama by 2, or a slew of smaller states like West Virginia, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Missouri where Hillary is at least competitive and Obama is not.

No comments: