Republican Punditocracy Are Wrong About Tightening National Polls
Newsweek: Obama 53, McCain 41.
AVERAGE: Obama 50.0, McCain 42.5 (Obama +7.5%).
The Associated Press has released a poll that shows a much closer race than any other poll out ther. Now,
But, the poll doesn't make sense on many levels. Here's one example: 45% of this poll's respondents are evangelicals or born-again Christians (this is on page 20 of the poll's crosstabs (it's a pdf):
The problem? In 2004, evangelicals/born-again Christians made up 23% of voters. But that same group makes up 44% of likely voters in AP's poll released today. That's almost double the number - it's totally implausible.