Saturday, October 25, 2008

Republican's Are Wrong About Tightening National Polls

Republican Punditocracy Are Wrong About Tightening National Polls

Newsweek: Obama 53, McCain 41.
Rasmussen: Obama 52, McCain 45.
Gallup: Obama 51, McCain 44.
Zogby: Obama 51, McCain 41.
ABC: Obama 53, McCain 44.
Battleground: Obama 49, McCain 46.
TIPP: Obama 46, McCain 42.
CBS: Obama 52, McCain 39.
FOX: Obama 49, McCain 40.
AP: Obama 44, McCain 43.

AVERAGE: Obama 50.0, McCain 42.5 (Obama +7.5%).

Today's Article:
National Polls Not Tightening Despite Reports




The Associated Press has released a poll that shows a much closer race than any other poll out ther. Now,

But, the poll doesn't make sense on many levels. Here's one example: 45% of this poll's respondents are evangelicals or born-again Christians (this is on page 20 of the poll's crosstabs (it's a pdf):



The problem? In 2004, evangelicals/born-again Christians made up 23% of voters. But that same group makes up 44% of likely voters in AP's poll released today. That's almost double the number - it's totally implausible.





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